Cincinnati Reds at Boston Red Sox: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CIN | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| BOS | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | - | 8 | 8 | 0 |
The Story
The Boston Red Sox defeated the Cincinnati Reds 8-2 at Fenway Park on June 1, 2023, in a game that remained relatively close through seven innings before Boston pulled away decisively in the eighth. The DiamondIQ model opened with a 59% pre-game win probability favoring the home side, and that estimate climbed steadily to 100% by game's end. Cincinnati managed to score in the third and eighth innings, while Boston answered with single runs in the fourth and seventh before erupting for six in the eighth to put the game out of reach. Both teams played clean defensively, each finishing without an error.
The pivotal sequence came in the bottom of the eighth, when Rafael Devers laced a double off Kevin Herget that swung win probability by plus-19.4%, the single largest play of the game by that measure. That blow came on the heels of Enrique Hernandez's solo home run off Ian Gibaut in the seventh, which added plus-15.8% to Boston's win probability and gave the Red Sox a lead they would not relinquish. Cincinnati had a brief window in the top of the eighth when Matt McLain singled off Chris Martin to shift probability plus-13.5% in the Reds' favor, but Jonathan India immediately grounded into a double play on the same at-bat sequence, swinging probability back minus-14.9% and effectively ending any Cincinnati threat. Earlier, Stuart Fairchild hit into a double play off Chris Sale in the fourth, costing the Reds minus-13.0% in win probability at a moment when the game was still very much in question.
Devers led all position players with plus-31.1% WPA and a RE24 of plus-2.1, while Hernandez contributed plus-21.3% WPA and the game's best RE24 among batters at plus-2.2. Kevin Newman was the top performer for Cincinnati in win-probability terms at plus-16.1% WPA. On the mound, Hunter Greene paced all pitchers with plus-22.1% WPA, a notable figure given that Cincinnati lost, reflecting the run-suppression value he provided before Boston's late offense overwhelmed the Reds bullpen. Justin Garza added plus-8.7% WPA and Nick Pivetta contributed plus-8.3% for Boston in support of a final margin that was more lopsided than the line score suggested through seven innings.