Washington Nationals at Los Angeles Dodgers: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 10 | 12 | 1 |
| LAD | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 11 | 1 |
The Story
The Washington Nationals handed the Los Angeles Dodgers a 10-6 defeat at Dodger Stadium on May 31, 2023, completing a comeback against a team the DiamondIQ model had installed as a 70 percent favorite before first pitch. Washington scored in five of nine innings, putting up runs early and delivering the decisive blow late to drop Los Angeles to zero percent win probability by the final out. The Nationals totaled 12 hits to the Dodgers' 11, but Washington made far more of its opportunities across the line score, particularly in the third inning when Los Angeles held a 3-1 lead before Washington began chipping away.
The two biggest swings in win probability came in the fifth and eighth innings. Jeimer Candelario connected on a home run off Noah Syndergaard in the top of the fifth, a plus-22.6 percent win-probability play that pulled Washington closer and carried Candelario to a game total of plus-30.9 percent WPA and plus-2.5 RE24. Then, with the Nationals already threatening in the top of the eighth against Brusdar Graterol, Luis García Jr. launched a home run that shifted win probability by plus-42.4 percent in a single swing, effectively breaking the game open. García Jr. finished as the game's top performer by a wide margin at plus-45.4 percent WPA and plus-2.7 RE24. CJ Abrams added a fielder's choice in the same inning for another plus-15.7 percent swing, and Washington plated three runs in the frame and two more in the ninth to close at 10-6.
On the Los Angeles side, Miguel Rojas provided the Dodgers' most consequential positive play with a seventh-inning single off Kyle Finnegan worth plus-16.4 percent win probability, accounting for his plus-19.9 percent WPA on the night. However, J.D. Martinez's strikeout against Carl Edwards Jr. in the sixth represented a minus-12.1 percent swing that stalled a potential Dodgers rally. Edwards Jr. finished as Washington's top pitching contributor by WPA at plus-7.9 percent, while Hunter Harvey led the bullpen staff at plus-12.0 percent. The DiamondIQ model's estimate ultimately reflected a near-total collapse from the Dodgers' pre-game positioning, with Washington outscoring Los Angeles by four despite the Dodgers holding a lead through much of the early going.