Minnesota Twins at Houston Astros: Final Score & Recap

The Minnesota Twins defeated the Houston Astros 7-5 in ten innings at Minute Maid Park on May 29, 2023, erasing a Houston advantage that had looked increasingly comfortable entering the late innings. The DiamondIQ model opened the night with a 61 percent win probability in favor of the Astros, and that edge held until the game's most dramatic sequence unfolded across the final three frames. Minnesota had built a 3-1 lead through six innings on the strength of an early Royce Lewis home run in the third off J.P. France, a swing that added 28.1 percent to the Twins' win probability. Houston answered emphatically in the bottom of the seventh when Jose Altuve hit a home run off Brock Stewart, a blast that delivered a 54.7 percent win-probability swing to the Astros and briefly made Houston the heavy favorite. Royce Lewis then countered in the top of the ninth with a single off Ryan Pressly that added 33.4 percent back to Minnesota's side, setting the stage for extra innings.

In the tenth, the Twins finished the job with authority. Ryan Jeffers hit a home run off Bryan Abreu that added 51.7 percent to Minnesota's win probability, all but sealing the outcome. Houston's final rally died when Yordan Alvarez struck out against Jhoan Duran to end the bottom of the tenth, a moment worth 14.4 percent in the Twins' favor. Lewis finished as Minnesota's top performer by win probability added at plus-58.0 percent with a RE24 of plus-2.3, while Jeffers matched that RE24 figure and posted a plus-50.5 percent WPA. Altuve led all Astros batters with a plus-49.2 percent WPA and a RE24 of plus-3.1, though his efforts were ultimately insufficient. On the mound, Héctor Neris led Minnesota's pitching staff with a plus-10.8 percent WPA, followed by Sonny Gray at plus-9.1 percent.