Kansas City Royals at St. Louis Cardinals: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KC | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 16 | 0 |
| STL | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
The Story
The Kansas City Royals handed the St. Louis Cardinals a 7-0 shutout at Busch Stadium on May 29, 2023, holding St. Louis to just two hits while collecting 16 of their own. The DiamondIQ model's estimate had St. Louis entering the game as a 66% favorite at home, but that probability collapsed to 0% by the final out, a complete reversal driven by Kansas City's sustained offensive output and dominant pitching across nine innings.
The decisive swing came in the top of the fifth inning when MJ Melendez laced a triple off Adam Wainwright, a play that shifted win probability by 15.7 percentage points in Kansas City's favor and stood as the single biggest play of the game. Wainwright had already been tested in the third, when Nick Pratto doubled to push probability 6.4 points toward the Royals, though Freddy Fermin's forceout moments later gave back 5.5 points and kept the Cardinals briefly within reach. Kansas City added a run in the eighth on a Vinnie Pasquantino single off Steven Matz, a swing worth 4.5 points, before a three-run ninth closed out the scoring.
Melendez finished as the game's top offensive contributor with a WPA of plus-19.5% and an RE24 of plus-1.3, while Pasquantino and Michael Massey also graded out positively, with Massey posting the highest RE24 among position players at plus-2.0. On the mound, Mike Mayers was the standout, generating plus-32.8% WPA, with Taylor Clarke and Josh Staumont each adding roughly five additional win-probability points in relief. The model leans toward crediting Mayers as the single most impactful individual performer of the contest when accounting for both sides of the ball together.