Washington Nationals at Los Angeles Dodgers: Final Score & Recap

The Los Angeles Dodgers handled the Washington Nationals 6-1 on May 29, 2023, at Dodger Stadium, with the DiamondIQ model's estimate opening at a 70 percent home win probability and closing at 100 percent by the final out. The game was effectively decided in the bottom of the fifth inning, when the Dodgers sent ten men to the plate and scored all six of their runs off Washington starter Trevor Williams. The pivotal sequence began with Freddie Freeman's double, a swing that shifted win probability by plus 22.2 percent and proved to be the single most impactful play of the game. J.D. Martinez followed with a home run that added another 18.5 percent to the Dodgers' win probability, and Miguel Vargas contributed a fielder's choice that moved the needle an additional 10.9 percent, completing a fifth inning that rendered the remaining four frames academic.

Washington's lone bright spot came in the top of the second, when CJ Abrams singled off Bobby Miller for an 8.6 percent win-probability swing in the Nationals' favor, but that momentum was immediately undercut when Jason Heyward grounded into a double play in the bottom half of the inning, erasing 11.8 percent of Washington's win probability. Freeman finished as the game's top offensive performer by WPA at plus 16.8 percent with a RE24 of plus 1.1, while Martinez posted the highest RE24 among hitters at plus 2.3 to go with his plus 14.7 percent WPA. On the mound, Bobby Miller led all pitchers with a plus 4.5 percent WPA contribution, keeping the Nationals' offense quiet through his outing and protecting the Dodgers' commanding lead through the final innings.