Texas Rangers at Baltimore Orioles: Final Score & Recap

Baltimore held off Texas 3-2 at Oriole Park at Camden Yards on May 28, 2023, with the DiamondIQ model entering the game giving the Orioles a 55 percent win probability and finishing at 100 percent. The game was a tight, low-scoring affair settled by a handful of critical half-innings, with Baltimore scoring twice in the first inning before the Rangers mounted a late but ultimately insufficient comeback. Kyle Bradish was the central figure for the Orioles, posting a plus-23.2 percent WPA to lead all pitchers, navigating a sixth inning in which he faced back-to-back pressure from Marcus Semien's double — the second-most impactful batting play of the game at plus-14.0 percent — before Corey Seager hit into a double play that swung win probability 9.7 percent back toward Baltimore, effectively neutralizing the threat.

The Rangers' best chance came in the eighth inning when Seager stroked a double off Yennier Cano, the single biggest batting play of the game at plus-18.3 percent, cutting into Baltimore's cushion and making it a one-run game. However, Travis Jankowski's strikeout against Cano in the seventh had already cost Texas 10.4 percent in win probability, and the bullpen combination of Cano, Félix Bautista, and Danny Coulombe ultimately shut the door. Bautista contributed plus-15.2 percent WPA and Coulombe added plus-7.2 percent as Baltimore's late-game relief held firm. On the offensive side, Adley Rutschman's eighth-inning single off Cole Ragans added 10.6 percent in win probability and provided critical insurance, while Austin Hays led all position players at plus-11.4 percent WPA and plus-2.0 RE24, and Robbie Grossman contributed plus-10.7 percent WPA to round out Baltimore's most impactful performers in a well-constructed team win.