Washington Nationals at Kansas City Royals: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 1 |
| KC | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 0 |
The Story
The Kansas City Royals came from behind to defeat the Washington Nationals 3-2 at Kauffman Stadium on May 28, 2023, completing a rally that carried them from a two-run deficit to a walk-off victory. Washington had grabbed the lead in the top of the fourth when Ildemaro Vargas drove a double off Daniel Lynch IV, a swing that shifted win probability 12.9 points in the Nationals' favor. That advantage held through six innings and into the seventh, where the DiamondIQ model's estimate of a home win had climbed no higher than 39 percent before first pitch. Kansas City steadily chipped away, beginning in the bottom of the seventh when MJ Melendez launched a home run off MacKenzie Gore to cut the deficit, a blow worth 15.6 percentage points of win probability.
Chad Kuhl, however, surrendered the tying and winning runs in the eighth and ninth innings. Edward Olivares put Kansas City level with a home run in the bottom of the eighth, a hit that added 21.9 percentage points to the Royals' win probability. The decisive sequence arrived in the bottom of the ninth, when a fielding error on a ball hit by Melendez opened the door and shifted the win probability another 12.0 points, followed immediately by Michael Massey's walk-off single that swung the outcome a staggering 37.9 percentage points in Kansas City's favor, sending the DiamondIQ model's estimate from a meaningful Washington advantage to a final reading of 100 percent for the Royals.
Massey finished as the top performer by win probability added, posting a plus-41.5 percent mark with a plus-1.0 RE24, his single the single most consequential hit of the game. Melendez was nearly as impactful at plus-24.6 percent WPA and plus-1.1 RE24 across his home run and the error that set up the winning rally. On the pitching side, MacKenzie Gore led Washington starters with a plus-18.4 percent WPA contribution, but the bullpen could not hold the lead. Scott Barlow added plus-13.5 percent WPA in relief for Kansas City, and Aroldis Chapman contributed plus-7.4 percent as the Royals closed out a three-game comeback with six hits and no errors.