Cincinnati Reds at Chicago Cubs: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CIN | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 12 | 0 |
| CHC | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 8 | 0 |
The Story
The Cincinnati Reds defeated the Chicago Cubs 8-5 at Wrigley Field on May 27, 2023, handing the home side a loss despite the DiamondIQ model opening the game with a 53 percent win probability favoring Chicago. The Reds finished with 12 hits and committed no errors, while the Cubs managed 8 hits in a game that slipped steadily away from them after the middle innings.
The decisive turning point came in the top of the fifth, when Jonathan India launched a home run off Michael Fulmer that shifted win probability by 23.7 percent in Cincinnati's favor, the single largest swing of the game. India returned in the seventh to hit another home run, this one off Jeremiah Estrada, adding a further 13.3 percent swing and effectively sealing the outcome. Between those two blows, Curt Casali's single off Estrada in the sixth moved the needle an additional 11.1 percent, and Matt McLain's fifth-inning single off Jameson Taillon contributed 10.9 percent. The Cubs' brightest individual moment came in the bottom of the second, when Dansby Swanson singled off Brandon Williamson for a 13.9 percent positive swing, briefly keeping Chicago's hopes alive during a three-run frame.
India finished as the game's most impactful player by a wide margin, accumulating a combined WPA of plus-41.4 percent and an RE24 of plus-3.9. Nico Hoerner led Cubs batters with a WPA of plus-15.1 percent and an RE24 of plus-1.6, while McLain posted a WPA of plus-9.2 percent for Cincinnati. On the mound, Buck Farmer was the top-performing pitcher by win probability added at plus-14.7 percent, with Alex Young contributing plus-5.2 percent out of the bullpen as the Reds closed out the road victory.