MLB Recap · May 27, 2023

Washington Nationals at Kansas City Royals: Final Score & Recap

WSH4
Final
KC2

Line Score

Team123456789RHE
WSH000004000480
KC101000000271

The Story

The Washington Nationals defeated the Kansas City Royals 4-2 on May 27, 2023, at Kauffman Stadium, with the DiamondIQ model's estimate of a Kansas City victory opening at 63 percent and closing at zero. The Nationals were held scoreless through five innings before erupting for all four of their runs in the top of the sixth, turning a deficit into a lead that Kansas City could not recover from. Salvador Perez had given the Royals a 2-0 advantage with a home run off Josiah Gray in the third, a swing the DiamondIQ model registered as a plus-10.2 percent win-probability shift in Kansas City's favor, but that lead evaporated completely in one decisive frame.

The sixth inning was where the game changed hands in dramatic fashion. Corey Dickerson opened the rally with a double off Brady Singer, a hit worth plus-15.3 percent in win probability and the single largest swing of the night. After Kansas City turned to Josh Taylor, CJ Abrams followed with a double of his own for plus-14.1 percent, and Keibert Ruiz added a single off Taylor worth plus-10.1 percent. When the inning ended, Washington had scored four times and taken a lead the Royals never seriously threatened.

On the mound, the Nationals bullpen controlled the remainder of the game cleanly. Carlos Hernandez led all pitchers with plus-16.9 percent in win-probability added, followed by Hunter Harvey at plus-13.3 percent and Mason Thompson at plus-11.0 percent. Kyle Finnegan closed out Kansas City in the ninth, with Vinnie Pasquantino's strikeout registering as a plus-12.0 percent swing that sealed the outcome. For the Royals, Nicky Lopez led position players with plus-14.7 percent in WPA, and MJ Melendez contributed plus-12.6 percent, but the offensive damage Kansas City managed was limited to Perez's third-inning blast, leaving the Nationals to win comfortably on eight hits and no errors.

Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.

Win Probability

755025WSH bats firstFinalKC win %WSH win %
DiamondIQ model home win probability across the game (pre-game 36.9% → final 0%).

Biggest Plays by Win-Probability Added

Corey Dickerson Double
Top 6th · off Brady Singer
+15.3%
CJ Abrams Double
Top 6th · off Josh Taylor
+14.1%
Vinnie Pasquantino Strikeout
Bot 9th · off Kyle Finnegan
+12.0%
Salvador Perez Home Run
Bot 3rd · off Josiah Gray
+10.2%
Keibert Ruiz Single
Top 6th · off Josh Taylor
+10.1%

Top Batters by WPA

Nicky Lopez+14.7%+0.3 RE24
MJ Melendez+12.6%+1.0 RE24
Jeimer Candelario+9.6%+0.8 RE24

Top Pitchers by WPA

Full box score, pitch data, and the play-by-play timeline
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