Los Angeles Dodgers at Tampa Bay Rays: Final Score & Recap

The Los Angeles Dodgers defeated the Tampa Bay Rays 6-5 at Tropicana Field on May 27, 2023, overcoming a game in which the DiamondIQ model's estimate had pegged Tampa Bay with a 65 percent pre-game win probability. The Dodgers chipped away with a run in the second, a two-run burst in the fourth, and then decisive contributions in the seventh and eighth innings to pull ahead for good. Los Angeles finished with nine hits and no errors, while the Rays matched them with nine hits but could not complete the comeback despite a late push in the ninth.

The swing moments told the story of a back-and-forth contest. Harold Ramírez provided Tampa Bay its two biggest individual plays, connecting on a home run off Clayton Kershaw in the bottom of the fifth for a swing of plus 22.8 percent in win probability, and then reaching on a forceout off Caleb Ferguson in the ninth that shifted the Rays' odds by plus 31.6 percent as they threatened to close the gap. On the Dodgers' side, Miguel Vargas delivered a go-ahead home run off Trevor Kelley in the top of the eighth worth plus 18.0 percent, and Mookie Betts had contributed a key single off Colin Poche in the seventh for plus 15.4 percent, those two plays helping Los Angeles construct its final margin.

Ramírez led all batters with a combined WPA of plus 43.6 percent and a RE24 of plus 1.1, though his efforts ultimately fell short. Freddie Freeman anchored the Dodgers' offensive contribution at plus 17.6 percent WPA and a RE24 of plus 1.2, while David Peralta added plus 12.4 percent WPA. Out of the bullpen, Evan Phillips was the most impactful arm on the Dodgers' staff at plus 17.9 percent WPA, with Brusdar Graterol and Jake Diekman providing additional support at plus 9.7 and plus 7.3 percent respectively, allowing Los Angeles to protect the slim lead and hand the Rays their final win probability of zero.