Toronto Blue Jays at Tampa Bay Rays: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 1 |
| TB | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | - | 6 | 5 | 1 |
The Story
The Tampa Bay Rays defeated the Toronto Blue Jays 6-3 at Tropicana Field on May 25, 2023, a result that aligned closely with the DiamondIQ model's pre-game estimate of a 74 percent home win probability, which climbed to 100 percent by the game's end. Tampa Bay seized control early and never relinquished it, with the Blue Jays managing only a pair of runs in a meaningless ninth inning to trim the final margin.
The game's most consequential sequence came in the bottom of the third inning, when Manuel Margot grounded out against Alek Manoah in a situation that nonetheless shifted win probability by plus 9.9 percent in Tampa Bay's favor, reflecting the damage already done around that at-bat. Josh Lowe's double off Manoah in the second inning had already moved the needle by plus 5.6 percent for the Rays, steadily building a cushion that Toronto could not overcome. On the other side, the Blue Jays repeatedly squandered opportunities, most notably in the seventh when Kevin Kiermaier grounded into a double play off Zach Eflin, a swing of minus 5.7 percent in win probability that effectively ended any realistic Toronto comeback bid.
Eflin was the game's most dominant individual performer, producing plus 11.6 percent in win probability added to lead all players regardless of position. Among Tampa Bay's hitters, Randy Arozarena posted the highest RE24 at plus 2.0, while Brandon Belt contributed plus 1.5 RE24 alongside plus 5.4 percent in win probability added. Margot finished as the top offensive contributor by WPA at plus 8.7 percent. Relievers Colin Poche and Trevor Richards provided additional support in the late innings, combining for plus 7.2 percent in win probability added and preserving the comfortable margin.