Cincinnati Reds at Philadelphia Phillies: Final Score & Recap

The Philadelphia Phillies walked off the Cincinnati Reds 3-2 on April 8, 2023, at Citizens Bank Park in a game that was entirely decided in the final inning. Cincinnati scored in the first and added another run in the ninth to briefly tie the game, but Philadelphia answered with three runs in the bottom of the ninth to secure the victory. The DiamondIQ model opened with Philadelphia as a 54% favorite before finishing at 100% certainty following the walk-off sequence.

The ninth inning was the entirety of the drama, and two swings defined it. Bryson Stott's single off Ian Gibaut delivered the largest single win-probability swing of the game at plus 41.4%, turning what had been a tenuous situation into a golden opportunity for the Phillies. Edmundo Sosa then followed with a sacrifice fly, also off Gibaut, adding another plus 38.6% to Philadelphia's win probability and delivering the decisive run. Alec Bohm had contributed earlier in the rally with a single off Alexis Díaz worth plus 16.7%, though the sequence was not without tension — Brandon Marsh's single off Díaz had actually cut Philadelphia's chances by 13.6%, and J.T. Realmuto's strikeout in the eighth had trimmed the model's estimate by 12.9% as well.

Sosa finished as the game's most impactful offensive player, accumulating plus 46.1% in WPA and a RE24 of plus 1.2 across his contributions. Stott was close behind at plus 28.3% WPA, while Bohm added plus 10.2%. On the pitching side, Nick Lodolo was the most valuable arm by WPA at plus 48.1%, working in favor of the Reds' side before the collapse, with Seranthony Domínguez at plus 17.2% and Bailey Falter at plus 13.2% contributing to Philadelphia's cause.