Los Angeles Dodgers at Arizona Diamondbacks: Final Score & Recap

The Los Angeles Dodgers defeated the Arizona Diamondbacks 5-2 at Chase Field on April 6, 2023, erasing a pre-game DiamondIQ model estimate of 54 percent in favor of the home club to leave Phoenix with a clean road win. Los Angeles scored in four separate innings, building their advantage incrementally with two runs in the third, one in the sixth, and one in the seventh, while the Diamondbacks were unable to sustain either of their two threatening frames down the stretch.

The most consequential sequence of the contest, by win-probability impact, came in the bottom of the sixth when Josh Rojas doubled off Dustin May to shift the DiamondIQ model's estimate 11.4 percent toward Arizona, briefly tightening the game. However, that momentum was quickly absorbed, as Freddie Freeman answered with a home run off Kyle Nelson in the top of the seventh, a swing worth 7.1 percent in win probability for Los Angeles and effectively the decisive blow. Earlier, J.D. Martinez had set the tone with a double off Merrill Kelly in the third inning, adding 7.5 percent to the Dodgers' win probability and driving what became a two-run frame. Arizona's best opportunity to mount a late comeback was extinguished in the eighth when Christian Walker struck out against Phil Bickford with a runner on base, a play that cost the Diamondbacks 6.8 percent in win probability.

Dustin May was the standout performer of the evening by the DiamondIQ model's measure, posting a WPA of plus-23.2 percent across his start as the Diamondbacks managed just one run against him through six innings. Freeman and Martinez led the offensive contributors with WPA marks of plus-7.1 and plus-5.9 percent respectively, while James Outman added plus-5.6 percent WPA and a RE24 of plus-0.9, rounding out a balanced Dodgers attack. Yency Almonte and Phil Bickford combined for plus-13.5 percent WPA out of the bullpen to close out the win.