MLB Recap · April 5, 2023

Los Angeles Angels at Seattle Mariners: Final Score & Recap

LAA4
Final
SEA3

Line Score

Team123456789RHE
LAA020000200450
SEA100000200380

The Story

The Los Angeles Angels held off the Seattle Mariners 4-3 at T-Mobile Park on April 5, 2023, handing the host club a defeat despite Seattle entering the game as a 54-percent favorite according to the DiamondIQ model's estimate. Los Angeles scored twice in the second inning to take an early lead, and when the game tightened in the seventh with both teams scoring two runs apiece, the Angels preserved enough of an advantage to carry a 4-3 edge into the final frames. José Quijada closed it out in the ninth, and the DiamondIQ model's estimate moved from that pregame 54-percent Seattle lean all the way to zero percent as the final out was recorded.

The decisive swing moments were distributed across the game's final innings. Mike Trout's single off Andrés Muñoz in the top of the seventh represented a 12.4-percent win-probability shift that helped the Angels extend their lead during that pivotal frame. On the Seattle side, Ty France's double off Jimmy Herget in the bottom of the seventh, worth a 12.0-percent swing, kept the Mariners in contention. The game's single largest play, however, came in the bottom of the ninth, when France struck out against Quijada, a moment the DiamondIQ model measured at a 27.0-percent win-probability addition for the Angels. Julio Rodríguez's forceout two batters earlier had already swung 10.7 percent toward Los Angeles, and Cooper Hummel's groundout in the eighth had shifted 16.5 percent in the same direction.

By win-probability added, France finished as the game's top batter at plus-41.2 percent despite playing for the losing side, driven largely by his seventh-inning double before his game-ending strikeout. Shohei Ohtani contributed plus-14.3 percent at the plate alongside a plus-1.8 RE24, while Trout added plus-13.3 percent. On the mound, Ohtani led all pitchers with a plus-31.1-percent WPA, underscoring how central his performance was to the Angels securing the road victory. Penn Murfee added plus-7.4 percent and Matt Brash contributed plus-6.0 percent for Seattle in a losing effort.

Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.

Win Probability

755025LAA bats firstFinalSEA win %LAA win %
DiamondIQ model home win probability across the game (pre-game 54% → final 0%).

Biggest Plays by Win-Probability Added

Ty France Strikeout
Bot 9th · off José Quijada
+27.0%
Cooper Hummel Groundout
Bot 8th · off Jimmy Herget
-16.5%
Mike Trout Single
Top 7th · off Andrés Muñoz
+12.4%
Ty France Double
Bot 7th · off Jimmy Herget
+12.0%
Julio Rodríguez Forceout
Bot 9th · off José Quijada
-10.7%

Top Batters by WPA

Ty France+41.2%+1.6 RE24
Shohei Ohtani+14.3%+1.8 RE24
Mike Trout+13.3%+1.2 RE24

Top Pitchers by WPA

Full box score, pitch data, and the play-by-play timeline
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