Detroit Tigers at Houston Astros: Final Score & Recap

The Detroit Tigers edged the Houston Astros 7-6 in eleven innings at Minute Maid Park on April 3, 2023, in a game that swung dramatically in both directions before Detroit ultimately prevailed. The DiamondIQ model opened with Houston as a 54% favorite at first pitch and saw that probability collapse entirely by the final out. The game moved quietly through the early innings before Houston erupted for four runs in the fifth, capped by a Yordan Alvarez home run off José Cisnero that shifted win probability 27.8 points in the Astros' favor and appeared to put Detroit in serious trouble. The Tigers answered with two of their own that inning and added a run in the seventh, setting up what became an extraordinary late game.

Detroit's Alex Lange surrendered a José Abreu double in the bottom of the ninth that swung win probability 38.8 points toward Houston, the single largest batting swing of the night, and brought the Astros level and in position to walk it off. Mason Englert steadied things considerably, his best moment coming when Martín Maldonado grounded into a double play in the eighth that swung probability 24.2 points against Houston, a sequence that proved critical to keeping the game alive. Englert finished as the top pitcher by WPA at plus 40.0 points. The game reached the eleventh before Matt Vierling delivered a home run off Héctor Neris, a swing worth 33.7 points of win probability, giving Detroit a two-run cushion. Abreu, despite his clutch double, ended as the game's most impactful batter overall at plus 62.4% WPA largely through accumulated leverage, while Vierling posted a plus-1.4 RE24 on the night. Houston's José Abreu and Alex Bregman both finished with strong positive WPA marks of plus 28.9 for Bregman, but it was not enough as Garrett Hill retired Abreu on a pop out to end it.