MLB Recap · April 2, 2023

Detroit Tigers at Tampa Bay Rays: Final Score & Recap

DET1
Final
TB5

Line Score

Team123456789RHE
DET000000001120
TB00010301-580

The Story

The Tampa Bay Rays defeated the Detroit Tigers 5-1 at Tropicana Field on April 2, 2023, in a game that was far more decisive than the final margin suggests. The DiamondIQ model opened with Tampa Bay as a modest favorite at 54% pre-game win probability, but that figure climbed steadily to 100% by the final out. Detroit managed just two hits on the night and never mounted a sustained threat, with their lone run coming in the ninth inning of a game already well out of reach.

The pivotal swing came in the bottom of the fourth, when Randy Arozarena launched a home run off Joey Wentz that shifted win probability by 11.8 percentage points, matching the single biggest batting play of the night. The Rays then broke the game open in the sixth inning with a three-run frame that effectively ended any competitive tension. Jose Siri's single off Jason Foley added another 11.8 percentage points to Tampa Bay's win probability, and Isaac Paredes followed with a single off Wentz worth 9.1 points. Wander Franco's double earlier in the inning had contributed an additional 4.5 points, building the frame methodically. Josh Lowe's strikeout against Foley represented the only meaningful resistance in the sequence, costing the Rays 4.8 points of probability.

On the individual ledger, Arozarena led all batters with a WPA of plus-12.1 and an RE24 of plus-0.8, while Siri posted plus-7.8 WPA and the game's best RE24 at plus-0.9. Paredes added plus-6.1 WPA. Jeffrey Springs was the dominant force on the pitching side, finishing with a game-high plus-27.6 WPA, underscoring how thoroughly he controlled the Detroit lineup throughout his outing.

Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.

Win Probability

755025DET bats firstFinalTB win %DET win %
DiamondIQ model home win probability across the game (pre-game 54% → final 100%).

Biggest Plays by Win-Probability Added

Randy Arozarena Home Run
Bot 4th · off Joey Wentz
+11.8%
Jose Siri Single
Bot 6th · off Jason Foley
+11.8%
Isaac Paredes Single
Bot 6th · off Joey Wentz
+9.1%
Josh Lowe Strikeout
Bot 6th · off Jason Foley
-4.8%
Wander Franco Double
Bot 6th · off Joey Wentz
+4.5%

Top Batters by WPA

Randy Arozarena+12.1%+0.8 RE24
Jose Siri+7.8%+0.9 RE24
Isaac Paredes+6.1%+0.4 RE24

Top Pitchers by WPA

Full box score, pitch data, and the play-by-play timeline
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