Colorado Rockies at San Diego Padres: Final Score & Recap

The San Diego Padres defeated the Colorado Rockies 3-1 on April 2, 2023, at Petco Park, with the DiamondIQ model's estimate moving from a 54 percent pre-game home win probability all the way to 100 percent by game's end. The contest was effectively decided in the bottom of the third inning, where San Diego did all the damage it needed against Colorado starter Austin Gomber. Xander Bogaerts delivered the game's most impactful blow, a home run that shifted win probability by 15.9 percent in San Diego's favor, and Trent Grisham followed with another home run that added a further 10.9 percent swing. Those two swings alone accounted for the bulk of the game's decisive shift, and Colorado never recovered the deficit.

The Rockies managed only a brief moment of relevance in the top of the seventh, when Ryan McMahon connected on a solo home run off Seth Lugo, representing an 8.6 percent win-probability swing and Colorado's lone run of the game. A Brian Serven single in the sixth off Lugo had provided a minor 4.5 percent nudge, but neither threat materialized into anything consequential. Ezequiel Tovar's strikeout against Luis Garcia in the eighth, costing Colorado 4.2 percent in win probability, underscored how little traction the Rockies could generate.

On the individual ledger, Bogaerts finished as the game's top performer by WPA at plus-14.4 percent with a RE24 of plus-1.2, followed by Grisham at plus-9.3 percent. McMahon led Colorado's modest contributions at plus-7.1 percent WPA despite the loss. On the mound, Seth Lugo was the standout, posting plus-20.1 percent WPA across his outing, with Luis Garcia adding plus-8.1 percent and Josh Hader contributing plus-6.3 percent as San Diego's pitching staff held Colorado to four hits and allowed no errors to go to waste.