Arizona Diamondbacks at Los Angeles Dodgers: Final Score & Recap

The Arizona Diamondbacks handed the Los Angeles Dodgers a 2-1 defeat at Dodger Stadium on April 2, 2023, rallying for both of their runs in the final inning to overcome a deficit and hand Los Angeles a loss the DiamondIQ model had assigned just a 46 percent chance of occurring before first pitch. The Dodgers had taken a 1-0 lead in the bottom of the first and held it through eight innings, but the Arizona bullpen and a quiet offense kept the game close enough for the Diamondbacks to strike when it mattered most.

The decisive sequence came in the top of the ninth against Brusdar Graterol. Ketel Marte opened the rally with a double that shifted the DiamondIQ model's win probability 17.5 percentage points in Arizona's favor, and Jake McCarthy followed with a single that swung it an additional 34.2 points, the single most impactful play of the game. Lourdes Gurriel Jr. had a single that briefly cost Arizona 17.3 percentage points of win probability, but the Diamondbacks ultimately pushed across the go-ahead and insurance run to take a 2-1 lead. In the bottom of the ninth, Jason Heyward grounded out against Scott McGough to end the game, a play that added 31.6 percentage points of win probability from Arizona's perspective as the final out was recorded.

McCarthy and Heyward led all batters with 31.2 and 31.6 WPA respectively, while Geraldo Perdomo contributed 17.8 WPA and a game-high 1.3 RE24 among position players. On the mound, Miguel Castro was the most impactful arm at plus-18.6 WPA, with Zach Davies and Andrew Chafin each adding 14.3 WPA in a collective shutdown effort that held a Dodgers lineup to just four hits and helped Arizona finish with a clean nine hits and zero errors on the night.