New York Mets at Miami Marlins: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYM | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 12 | 0 |
| MIA | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
The Story
The New York Mets beat the Miami Marlins 6-2 at loanDepot park on April 1, 2023, handing the home side a loss despite Miami entering the game as slight favorites. The DiamondIQ model's estimate opened with a 54 percent home win probability for Miami, but that figure eroded steadily and closed at zero percent as New York methodically built its lead across nine innings, collecting 12 hits without committing an error.
The game's two most decisive swings came on opposite sides of the ledger. In the bottom of the second, Nick Fortes gave Miami its most significant lift of the night with a home run off Tylor Megill that shifted win probability 13.3 percent in the Marlins' favor, representing the single largest positive play for either club. New York answered with a sequence of damage in the middle innings, most notably Omar Narvaez's single in the fourth off Edward Cabrera, which moved the needle 9.7 percent toward the Mets, and Jeff McNeil's double in the fifth off Andrew Nardi, worth 7.5 percent. Bryan De La Cruz's groundout in the bottom of the fifth, which cost Miami 8.1 percent in win probability against Megill, extinguished a potential rally and proved to be the last realistic moment of sustained Marlins threat. Mark Canha then delivered the decisive blow in the top of the seventh, a home run off Braxton Garrett that added 11.4 percent to New York's probability and effectively closed the door.
Canha finished as the game's top performer by the DiamondIQ model's accounting, posting a combined WPA of plus-24.1 percent and an RE24 of plus-2.1, driven by that seventh-inning blast and sustained contributions throughout the lineup. Fortes led Miami with a WPA of plus-9.2 percent and an RE24 of plus-1.4, while Luis Arraez contributed plus-7.6 percent WPA and a plus-1.1 RE24 in a losing effort. On the mound, Dennis Santana led all pitchers with a WPA of plus-7.5 percent, followed by starter Tylor Megill at plus-5.4 percent and Adam Ottavino at plus-5.2 percent, as the Mets' pitching staff collectively held Miami to two runs on ten hits.