MLB Recap · April 1, 2023

Atlanta Braves at Washington Nationals: Final Score & Recap

ATL7
Final
WSH1

Line Score

Team123456789RHE
ATL2021002007110
WSH000000001150

The Story

The Atlanta Braves opened the 2023 season with a commanding 7-1 victory over the Washington Nationals at Nationals Park on April 1, handing Washington a result that tracked closely with how the DiamondIQ model's estimate shifted across the afternoon. Despite the model entering the game giving the home Nationals a 54% win probability, that figure eroded steadily and finished at 0% as Atlanta scored in four separate innings and held Washington to a single run on five hits.

The third inning proved to be the decisive turning point. An Ozzie Albies walk off Josiah Gray shifted win probability 8.9 points in Atlanta's favor, and a Michael Harris II single added another 6.7 points, combining to make the frame the single most damaging stretch for Washington's chances. On the other side, Luis García Jr. grounded into a double play in the bottom of the third at a cost of 8.0 win-probability points, extinguishing whatever momentum the Nationals might have manufactured. Earlier, in the bottom of the second and first, Jeimer Candelario and Dominic Smith each struck out against Spencer Strider, costing Washington 6.8 and 6.0 win-probability points respectively, signaling that the home side would find no early foothold.

Spencer Strider was the engine behind the Braves' effort, finishing as the game's top pitcher by a wide margin at plus 28.9 win-probability points. At the plate, Michael Harris II led all batters with a plus 11.0 WPA, followed by Marcell Ozuna at plus 9.5 and Ozzie Albies at plus 8.7 with a RE24 of plus 1.1, reflecting his contributions in run-environment terms beyond just the win-probability column. Atlanta's 11 hits and zero errors underscored the clinical nature of the performance.

Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.

Win Probability

755025ATL bats firstFinalWSH win %ATL win %
DiamondIQ model home win probability across the game (pre-game 54% → final 0%).

Biggest Plays by Win-Probability Added

Ozzie Albies Walk
Top 3rd · off Josiah Gray
+8.9%
Luis García Jr. Grounded Into DP
Bot 3rd · off Spencer Strider
-8.0%
Jeimer Candelario Strikeout
Bot 2nd · off Spencer Strider
-6.8%
Top 3rd · off Josiah Gray
+6.7%
Dominic Smith Strikeout
Bot 1st · off Spencer Strider
-6.0%

Top Batters by WPA

Michael Harris II+11.0%-0.1 RE24
Marcell Ozuna+9.5%+0.5 RE24
Ozzie Albies+8.7%+1.1 RE24

Top Pitchers by WPA

Full box score, pitch data, and the play-by-play timeline
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