The Milwaukee Brewers defeated the Los Angeles Dodgers 7-4 at American Family Field on October 12, 2026, handing Los Angeles a loss built on a combination of timely Milwaukee hitting and Dodger errors. The DiamondIQ model entered the game giving Milwaukee a 54% home win probability, and by the final out that figure had reached 100%, reflecting how decisively the Brewers controlled the contest. Los Angeles managed only three hits against a Milwaukee pitching staff that held firm through nine innings, while the Dodgers' two errors compounded their offensive struggles.
The pivotal moments came in the middle innings, where Milwaukee seized control through a pair of high-leverage swings. Christian Yelich's single in the bottom of the third off Yoshinobu Yamamoto was the single largest win-probability shift of the game, adding 17.1 percentage points in Milwaukee's favor and setting the tone for what followed. William Contreras then delivered the decisive blow in the bottom of the fifth with a home run off Kris Bubic, a swing worth 13.4 percentage points in win probability that effectively broke the game open. Contreras added another single in the sixth off Brock Stewart, worth 7.3 percentage points, capping an evening in which he finished as Milwaukee's most impactful offensive player. Kyle Tucker's double off Logan Henderson in the top of the fifth represented Los Angeles's strongest response, adding 7.7 percentage points, but the Dodgers could not sustain pressure against Milwaukee's bullpen.
William Contreras led all batters with a WPA of plus-18.0 and an RE24 of plus-2.3, while Yelich contributed plus-12.5 WPA and Brice Turang added plus-8.6 WPA with a plus-1.3 RE24. On the mound, Abner Uribe was the most valuable arm for Milwaukee, posting a WPA of plus-13.7, followed by Tanner Scott at plus-9.7 and Aaron Ashby at plus-8.0. The model leans toward Milwaukee's performance as the product of consistent execution across both pitching and offense, with Contreras and the bullpen doing the most to separate the two clubs.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.