Los Angeles Dodgers at Milwaukee Brewers: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAD | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| MIL | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | 2 | 6 | 0 |
The Story
The Milwaukee Brewers defeated the Los Angeles Dodgers 2-1 at American Family Field on October 11, 2026, handing Los Angeles a tough postseason loss. The DiamondIQ model's estimate opened with Milwaukee holding a 54% home win probability, and by the final out that figure had climbed to 100%, reflecting just how thoroughly the Brewers controlled the late innings after building their slim but durable lead.
The decisive sequence began in the bottom of the fourth, when Brice Turang connected on a home run off Tarik Skubal, a swing that shifted win probability by plus 11.9 percentage points and stood as the game's most consequential offensive moment. Milwaukee extended its cushion in the fifth when Luis Lara singled off Skubal, a hit worth plus 10.3 percentage points in win probability, pushing the Brewers to their final margin of two runs. Los Angeles mounted pressure in the ninth but could not convert, as Mookie Betts flew out against Trevor Megill for a swing of minus 13.5 percentage points, the single largest win-probability shift of the game, followed by Max Muncy's pop out at minus 7.1 percentage points to extinguish any remaining hope.
On the individual ledger, Turang led all batters with a plus 13.4% WPA and a plus 0.9 RE24, anchoring Milwaukee's offense. Josue De Paula added plus 6.7% WPA and Lara contributed plus 5.9% WPA and plus 0.5 RE24 to support the effort. On the mound, Aaron Ashby was the standout with plus 19.3% WPA, while Trevor Megill's shutdown ninth translated to plus 15.2% WPA and Abner Uribe added plus 7.3% WPA, giving Milwaukee's bullpen collective credit for preserving a lead that proved just wide enough to hold.