Milwaukee Brewers at San Diego Padres: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIL | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 11 | 1 |
| SD | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | - | 4 | 6 | 0 |
The Story
The San Diego Padres held off the Milwaukee Brewers 4-3 at Petco Park on October 6, 2026, completing the victory after a tense late-game stretch that tested their bullpen. San Diego entered with the DiamondIQ model's estimate of a 54 percent pre-game home win probability, a figure that climbed to 100 percent by the final out. The Padres built their lead methodically, scoring twice in the third, adding a run in the fifth and another in the sixth, while Milwaukee answered with single runs in the fourth, fifth, and seventh to keep the game within reach. The Brewers out-hit San Diego 11 to 6, but a Milwaukee error and an inability to convert late chances proved costly.
The two most decisive moments came at opposite ends of the swing chart. Jake Cronenworth's fifth-inning home run off JoJo Romero generated a 12.4 percent win-probability swing in San Diego's favor, pushing the Padres ahead with room to breathe. That same magnitude was matched by Christian Yelich's seventh-inning single off Bradgley Rodriguez, which kept Milwaukee's threat alive, but Yelich was the central figure in the game's most damaging play as well. In the top of the ninth, after Brice Turang drew a walk off Michael King to extend the inning and shift 10.6 percent of win probability toward the Brewers, Yelich grounded into a double play that erased the threat entirely, swinging win probability 26.3 percent back toward San Diego and effectively closing the door.
Michael King was the dominant individual performer of the night, posting a 25.9 percent WPA contribution out of the bullpen to lead all pitchers. Offensively, William Contreras headlined San Diego's contributors with a 21.4 percent WPA and a plus-1.4 RE24, while Cronenworth finished at plus-16.1 percent WPA with a matching plus-1.4 RE24. Miguel Andujar added a plus-12.3 percent WPA largely on the back of a Brewers fielding error in the sixth that opened the door for an additional San Diego run. The DiamondIQ model leans toward King's late-inning dominance and Contreras's sustained offensive impact as the primary factors separating these two clubs on the night.