Atlanta Braves at Los Angeles Dodgers: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATL | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 0 |
| LAD | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
The Story
The Atlanta Braves defeated the Los Angeles Dodgers 3-2 at UNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium on October 4, 2026, handing Los Angeles a loss despite the Dodgers entering with a 54 percent home win probability according to the DiamondIQ model's estimate. Atlanta scored in the first, fifth, and seventh innings, while Los Angeles answered with runs in the fourth and ninth, ultimately falling short in a tight, low-scoring contest that saw both clubs finish with six hits and no errors.
The game's most consequential sequence came in the bottom of the ninth, when Josue De Paula's pop out against Raisel Iglesias swung win probability 31.6 percent in Atlanta's favor, preserving the one-run lead and closing the door on the Dodgers' final threat. Earlier, Michael Harris II had delivered the go-ahead margin with a double off Edgardo Henriquez in the top of the seventh, a hit that shifted win probability 15.9 percent toward the Braves. Freddie Freeman had given Los Angeles life with a home run off Grant Holmes in the bottom of the fourth, a swing worth 11.9 percent in win probability for the home side, while Mauricio Dubón's walk against Kris Bubic in the top of the fifth moved the needle 10.8 percent Atlanta's way. Ronald Acuña Jr. grounded into a double play off Roki Sasaki in the top of the eighth, a moment that cost the Braves 8.9 percent in win probability.
On the mound, Didier Fuentes led all pitchers with a WPA of plus-34.0 percent, followed by Robert Suarez at plus-14.9 percent and Ray Kerr at plus-12.6 percent, a collective bullpen effort that proved decisive in suppressing the Dodgers. Harris finished as the top offensive contributor by combined WPA at plus-20.2 percent with a RE24 of plus-0.6, while Freeman's power display gave him a RE24 of plus-0.9 despite his team falling short. De Paula's clutch plate appearance made him the single-play leader on the night, and the DiamondIQ model's estimate bottomed out at zero percent for Los Angeles by the final out.