MLB Recap · September 30, 2026

Boston Red Sox at New York Yankees: Final Score & Recap

BOS2
Final
NYY9

Line Score

Team123456789RHE
BOS000001100241
NYY00011610-9140

The Story

The New York Yankees closed out September 30, 2026 with a commanding 9-2 victory over the Boston Red Sox at Yankee Stadium, turning what began as a pitcher's duel into a lopsided affair. The DiamondIQ model entered the night giving New York a 54 percent home win probability, and by the time the final out was recorded, that figure had climbed to 100 percent. Boston managed just four hits against a Yankees pitching staff that surrendered zero errors, while the Red Sox committed one of their own. New York's offense finished with 14 hits, and the bulk of the damage came in a pivotal sixth inning in which the Yankees plated six runs to put the game firmly out of reach.

The decisive swings came in clusters across the middle innings. Luis García Jr. opened the scoring in the bottom of the fourth with a home run off Sonny Gray, a play the DiamondIQ model valued at plus 11.4 percent in win probability for New York. Boston answered with a Willson Contreras home run off Max Fried in the top of the sixth, a plus 11.5 percent swing that briefly tightened the game. The Yankees responded immediately, with Cody Bellinger delivering a single off Erik Miller that registered a plus 10.5 percent win-probability shift, followed by George Lombard Jr.'s single off Garrett Crochet at plus 9.9 percent, and Ryan McMahon adding a groundout off Garrett Whitlock worth plus 5.6 percent as New York broke the game open with six sixth-inning runs.

Among individual performers, Willson Contreras led Boston with a plus 15.6 percent WPA and a RE24 of plus 1.9, though his efforts were insufficient against the Yankees' onslaught. Cody Bellinger paced New York's offense with a plus 11.9 percent WPA and a RE24 of plus 3.0, while Luis García Jr. contributed plus 7.5 percent WPA. On the mound, Max Fried was the standout, finishing with a plus 15.5 percent WPA, with Sonny Gray adding plus 6.2 percent in support. The model leans heavily toward reflecting how thoroughly New York controlled the contest once the sixth inning unfolded.

Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.

Win Probability

755025BOS bats firstFinalNYY win %BOS win %
DiamondIQ model home win probability across the game (pre-game 54% → final 100%).

Biggest Plays by Win-Probability Added

Willson Contreras — Home Run
Top 6th · off Max Fried
+11.5%
Luis García Jr. — Home Run
Bot 4th · off Sonny Gray
+11.4%
Cody Bellinger — Single
Bot 5th · off Erik Miller
+10.5%
Bot 6th · off Garrett Crochet
+9.9%
Ryan McMahon — Groundout
Bot 6th · off Garrett Whitlock
+5.6%

Top Batters by WPA

Willson Contreras+15.6%+1.9 RE24
Cody Bellinger+11.9%+3.0 RE24
Luis García Jr.+7.5%+0.6 RE24

Top Pitchers by WPA

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