Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Braves: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 12 | 0 |
| ATL | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 9 | 0 |
The Story
The Philadelphia Phillies defeated the Atlanta Braves 4-3 in ten innings on September 30, 2026, at Truist Park, erasing a pregame DiamondIQ model estimate of a 54 percent home win probability and ultimately reducing Atlanta's chances to zero. The game was tied at three heading into extra innings after Philadelphia scored twice in the eighth and Atlanta had built its lead earlier, with the contest remaining deadlocked through nine before the Phillies struck decisively.
The decisive blow came in the top of the tenth when Alec Bohm drove a home run off Didier Fuentes, a swing that shifted win probability by 35.3 percentage points and stood as the single largest play of the game by that measure. Bryce Harper's home run off Dylan Lee in the top of the eighth, worth 18.6 percentage points of win probability, had already reset the competitive balance after Atlanta appeared to be pulling away. Derek Hill's strikeout to end the top of the tenth added another 18.5 percentage points, setting the stage for Andrew Painter to close it out. Painter did exactly that, with Dominic Smith's strikeout in the bottom of the tenth representing a 21.4-point swing in Philadelphia's favor. On the Atlanta side, Michael Harris II's ground into a double play off Cristopher Sánchez in the bottom of the sixth cost the Braves 17.9 percentage points of win probability at a moment when they still held the lead.
Among the game's standout performers by the DiamondIQ model's accounting, Bohm finished with a cumulative WPA of plus 28.6 percent and an RE24 of plus 1.1, the best run-contribution figure of any batter. Tyler Mahle led all pitchers with a WPA of plus 33.3 percent, and Raisel Iglesias contributed an additional plus 9.4 percent out of the bullpen as the Phillies navigated the final frames cleanly. Philadelphia finished with 12 hits and committed no errors, while Atlanta managed 9 hits and was similarly clean defensively, making the Phillies' late-inning execution the decisive separator.