Arizona Diamondbacks at San Diego Padres: Final Score & Recap

San Diego topped Arizona 9-4 at Petco Park on September 27, 2026, a result the DiamondIQ model projected with growing confidence throughout — entering the game at 57% in favor of the Padres and finishing at 100% as San Diego pulled away late. The game was knotted in a low-scoring affair through the first six innings before the seventh became the decisive frame for both clubs. Tim Tawa delivered the biggest swing of the night for Arizona when his single off Griffin Canning in the top of the seventh shifted win probability by plus-17.5 percentage points, briefly giving the Diamondbacks life with what became part of a three-run inning. The foundation for San Diego's winning margin, however, had been quietly laid earlier, with Manny Machado's single off Michael Soroka in the third adding plus-9.3 percentage points and Gavin Sheets' home run off Soroka in the fourth contributing another plus-10.0 points to San Diego's ledger.

The Padres answered emphatically in the bottom of the seventh, stringing together the game's most consequential sequence. Freddy Fermin's single off Kevin Ginkel added plus-11.7 percentage points, and Jake Cronenworth drew a walk off Justin Martinez that pushed the model's estimate another plus-11.0 points toward San Diego. Two more Padres runs in the eighth closed out the scoring at 9-4. Fermin finished as San Diego's most productive offensive contributor by RE24, posting plus-1.7 alongside a plus-14.8 percent WPA mark, while Cronenworth added plus-1.3 RE24 and plus-13.7 percent WPA. Randy Vásquez was the standout on the pitching side, generating plus-15.3 percent WPA for San Diego. Arizona's Soroka and Ryne Nelson both finished in negative territory at minus-2.2 and minus-2.0 percent WPA respectively, reflecting the toll the Padres' lineup took on the Arizona staff across the middle innings.