St. Louis Cardinals at Milwaukee Brewers: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 0 |
| MIL | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | 6 | 10 | 1 |
The Story
The Milwaukee Brewers defeated the St. Louis Cardinals 6-4 on September 27, 2026, at American Family Field, a result that aligned with the DiamondIQ model's pre-game estimate of a 69 percent home win probability, which ultimately climbed to 100 percent by the final out. Milwaukee built its lead early and held it comfortably, while St. Louis managed to close the gap only briefly in the eighth before the Brewers' advantage proved insurmountable.
The game's decisive moments came in clusters. Gary Sánchez set the tone in the bottom of the third with a home run off Andre Pallante that carried a win-probability swing of plus 9.8 percent, extending what was already a three-run Milwaukee lead established in the first inning. The Brewers had scored three runs in the opening frame to put St. Louis immediately on the back foot, and the Sánchez blast effectively sealed the game's competitive shape through the middle innings. The Cardinals did mount a response in the top of the eighth, when Leo Bernal connected for a home run off Chad Patrick, a swing worth an identical plus 9.8 percent in win probability that made it a two-run game and temporarily reopened the contest. However, Milwaukee's bullpen, anchored by Shane Drohan, shut the door from there, and Nathan Church's groundout to Drohan in the ninth, costing St. Louis 3.8 percent in win probability, ended any remaining hope.
Bernal was St. Louis's most impactful performer, finishing with a cumulative WPA of plus 16.4 percent and an RE24 of plus 2.8, driven largely by his eighth-inning home run and a first-inning pop out that actually added 3.6 percent to his team's win probability given the game state. On the Milwaukee side, Sánchez posted plus 9.6 percent WPA and plus 1.3 RE24, while Jackson Chourio contributed plus 7.0 percent WPA and a team-high plus 2.4 RE24. Among pitchers, Drohan led all arms with plus 10.2 percent WPA, and starter Jacob Misiorowski added plus 9.6 percent, as the Brewers' pitching staff collectively limited St. Louis to four hits and no errors across nine innings.