Cincinnati Reds at Toronto Blue Jays: Final Score & Recap

The Cincinnati Reds handed the Toronto Blue Jays a 5-1 defeat at Rogers Centre on September 26, 2026, erasing what the DiamondIQ model had estimated as a 56 percent pre-game home win probability for Toronto down to zero by the final out. Cincinnati did its damage in clusters, plating a run in the second, two more in the third, and two additional in the fifth while committing no errors against a Toronto club that made two. The Blue Jays managed just a single run in the seventh, never threatening in a meaningful way against a Reds pitching staff that controlled the game from the opening frame.

The third inning proved to be the turning point, with two of the game's highest-leverage plays arriving against Toronto starter Spencer Miles. Eugenio Suárez opened the damage with a double that added 8.4 percent to Cincinnati's win probability, and Sal Stewart followed with a fielders choice that swung the model another 13.3 percent in the Reds' favor. Stewart finished as the game's top offensive contributor by WPA, posting a plus-14.8 percent mark alongside a RE24 of plus-1.2. Héctor Rodríguez extended the lead with a triple off John Klein in the fifth that shifted win probability another 12.3 percent toward Cincinnati, and he finished second among Reds hitters at plus-12.2 percent WPA and a team-best plus-1.8 RE24. Brett Bateman added a plus-7.4 percent WPA performance of his own to round out Cincinnati's most impactful bats.

On the mound, Rhett Lowder was the story, contributing a game-high plus-25.8 percent WPA. His effort included neutralizing a potential Toronto rally in the second when Andrés Giménez lined out, a play that cost the Blue Jays 5.8 percent in win probability. Braydon Fisher and Graham Ashcraft each added positive contributions in relief at plus-3.1 and plus-1.2 percent respectively, completing a dominant collective pitching performance that kept Toronto's lineup in check through nine innings.