Arizona Diamondbacks at San Diego Padres: Final Score & Recap

The San Diego Padres defeated the Arizona Diamondbacks 10-7 on September 26, 2026, at Petco Park, with the DiamondIQ model's estimate of a Padres victory moving from a pre-game 56% all the way to 100% by the final out. The game featured lead changes and momentum shifts through the middle innings before San Diego pulled away decisively. Arizona managed 10 hits without committing an error, but the Padres' 13-hit output and timely power proved to be the difference.

The decisive blow came in the bottom of the fourth, when Manny Machado connected on a home run off Jose Cabrera that shifted win probability by 26.6 percentage points, the single largest swing of the evening and the play that effectively separated the two clubs. That swing came just after James McCann had delivered a home run of his own off Walker Buehler in the top of the fourth, a swing worth 21.7 percentage points that temporarily gave Arizona life. San Diego had already done damage in the third inning, where Gavin Sheets drove a double off Kevin Ginkel for a 10.3-point swing and Dustin Harris followed with a triple off Jonathan Loaisiga worth 9.5 points. Gabriel Moreno contributed a single off Buehler in the third as well, generating a 9.7-point swing for Arizona that briefly kept the Diamondbacks within reach.

Among individual performers, Machado finished as the game's top batter by WPA at plus-23.0 with a RE24 of plus-2.1, while McCann posted plus-18.7 WPA and plus-1.1 RE24 as the most impactful Arizona contributor despite the loss. Moreno added plus-11.6 WPA for the Diamondbacks. On the pitching side, Bradgley Rodriguez led all pitchers with plus-9.2 WPA for San Diego, while Yuki Matsui contributed plus-2.4 WPA in support. Arizona's three-run ninth made the final score respectable, but the outcome had long since been settled by San Diego's middle-inning surge.