Atlanta Braves at Miami Marlins: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATL | 1 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 10 | 0 |
| MIA | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 8 | 1 |
The Story
The Atlanta Braves defeated the Miami Marlins 8-3 on September 26, 2026, at loanDepot park, pulling away with a dominant early offensive performance that rendered the DiamondIQ model's pre-game home win probability of 45% moot well before the final out. Atlanta scored in four of nine innings, building a 6-0 lead through the first two frames and never allowing Miami a realistic path back into the contest. The Marlins finished with an error and managed just three runs on eight hits, while the Braves posted a clean 10-hit, zero-error performance.
The decisive stretch came in the top of the second inning, when Dominic Smith drove a home run off Jack Ralston that swung win probability 7.2 points in Atlanta's favor, a blow that set the tone for the afternoon. Brent Suter was the game's most impactful pitcher by a wide margin, contributing 16.8% in win probability added as he stifled Miami's offense in the early innings, including a pivotal flyout he induced from Griffin Conine in the bottom of the second that shifted the game's probability 8.1 points against the home side. Victor Mederos added 8.3% WPA in relief, and Dylan Lee chipped in 5.2% despite allowing a Javier Sanoja single and a Heriberto Hernández triple in the late innings. Hernández's seventh-inning triple off Robert Suarez, worth 7.4% WPA, briefly gave Miami a hint of life, but an Agustín Ramírez groundout into a double play in the bottom of the eighth, which cost the Marlins 11.7 percentage points in win probability, effectively closed the door.
Drake Baldwin led all batters with 8.1% WPA and a RE24 of plus-1.5, while Smith finished at plus-5.9% WPA and plus-1.4 RE24 to pace Atlanta's offense. Sanoja was the brightest spot for Miami, generating 4.3% WPA and 0.7 RE24, but the Marlins lacked the sustained production necessary to challenge a Braves club that executed cleanly on both sides of the ball. The DiamondIQ model's estimate of Miami's win probability fell to 0% by game's end, a reflection of how thoroughly Atlanta controlled the contest from the second inning forward.