Baltimore Orioles at New York Yankees: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BAL | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 11 | 1 |
| NYY | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 | - | 6 | 8 | 1 |
The Story
The New York Yankees defeated the Baltimore Orioles 6-3 on September 25, 2026, at Yankee Stadium, with the DiamondIQ model's pre-game estimate giving the home side a 62% chance of winning — a figure that climbed to 100% by the final out. The game was scoreless through four innings before New York began pulling away, scoring once in the fifth, three times in the sixth, and twice more in the seventh to build an insurmountable lead. Baltimore managed to scratch across a run in the seventh and two more in the ninth, but the damage had long been done, with the Orioles finishing with 11 hits and an error against six for New York.
The decisive sequence came in the bottom half of the fifth and sixth innings, where New York's offense delivered its most impactful blows by win-probability measures. Ryan McMahon's double in the fifth off Brandon Young shifted win probability by plus 14.3 percentage points, the single largest swing of the night. The sixth inning compounded that damage when Anthony Volpe doubled off Anthony Nunez for a plus 12.7 point swing, then Spencer Jones followed with a run-scoring single off Josh Walker worth plus 12.1 points. Baltimore's best answer came in the top of the seventh, when Jeremiah Jackson drew a walk off Brent Headrick that nudged Orioles win probability up 8.8 points, though it proved too little. A key negative swing came earlier, in the top of the third, when Rece Hinds struck out against Will Warren, costing Baltimore 6.2 percentage points of win probability.
On the pitching side, Will Warren was the dominant force of the evening, accumulating plus 24.9% WPA across his start, while Brandon Young added plus 14.5% WPA in relief. Among position players, McMahon led all batters with plus 11.6% WPA and a RE24 of plus 1.1, with Jones posting plus 9.7% WPA and Volpe contributing plus 8.2% WPA alongside a matching RE24 of plus 1.1. The DiamondIQ model leaned toward New York from the outset, and the Yankees' lineup validated that lean emphatically across the middle innings.