Arizona Diamondbacks at San Diego Padres: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AZ | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 8 | 0 |
| SD | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 10 | 0 |
The Story
The Arizona Diamondbacks handed the San Diego Padres a decisive 11-4 defeat at Petco Park on September 25, 2026, erasing the DiamondIQ model's pre-game 56 percent home win probability and driving it to zero percent by the final out. Arizona wasted no time asserting control, plating three runs in the first inning and adding another in the second, building a lead that San Diego never meaningfully threatened. The D-backs tacked on three more in the sixth to salt the game away, finishing with 11 runs on eight hits and no errors while the Padres managed ten hits but could not convert them into anything resembling a sustained offensive threat.
The single most consequential moment of the game, by the DiamondIQ model's estimate, came in the top of the third inning when Nolan Arenado deposited a home run off Casey Mize, a swing that shifted Arizona's win probability by plus 15.9 percent and effectively ended any realistic path back for San Diego. Arenado finished as the game's top batter by WPA at plus 15.4 percent with a RE24 of plus 1.9. San Diego's best chances to claw back were extinguished early, most sharply in the bottom of the second when Samad Taylor grounded into a double play off Brandon Pfaadt, a play that swung the probability minus 10.5 percent against the Padres. Similarly, Ty France's strikeout to end the first inning cost San Diego minus 9.0 percent in win probability.
Brandon Pfaadt was the standout performer on the mound, leading all pitchers with a plus 17.0 percent WPA contribution as he neutralized the Padres' offense throughout his outing. Ketel Marte added plus 8.9 percent WPA at the plate, and Tim Tawa contributed plus 7.2 percent, both benefiting from opportunities created against Mize in the early innings. David Morgan and Zac Gallen also contributed positively in relief, finishing at plus 1.0 and plus 0.0 percent WPA respectively. Arizona's performance was thorough and largely error-free, making the road victory at Petco Park a comprehensive one by nearly every measure tracked.