San Diego Padres at Los Angeles Dodgers: Final Score & Recap

The San Diego Padres silenced a Dodgers team that entered as 59-percent favorites according to the DiamondIQ model's estimate, grinding out a 4-2 victory at UNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium on September 24, 2026. San Diego did not score through the first five innings, but Fernando Tatis Jr. broke the ice with a single off Tyler Glasnow in the sixth that shifted win probability 6.2 points in the Padres' favor. The game then cracked open in the seventh, when Justin Wrobleski surrendered back-to-back singles from Austin Hays and Ethan Salas, worth 10.8 and 10.4 win-probability points respectively, before Tatis Jr. added another single in the same frame for an additional 5.8-point swing. The Padres plated three runs in that inning alone, effectively closing the door on Los Angeles before the home side could mount a response.

Nick Pivetta was the central figure of the evening from a pitching standpoint, generating 23.5 win-probability points for San Diego and holding the Dodgers to minimal damage through his stint. Yuki Matsui followed with a 9.2-point contribution out of the bullpen, and closer Mason Miller finished the game. The most statistically significant moment of the entire contest, counterintuitively, belonged to a Dodger: Mookie Betts grounded out to lead off the ninth with runners on, a play that added 14.4 points to Los Angeles's win probability in terms of what it prevented from happening, making Betts the night's top batter by WPA at plus-21.8 despite being on the losing side. Tatis Jr. finished as San Diego's offensive leader with a plus-16.1 WPA and 1.4 RE24, while Salas contributed a plus-13.0 WPA and 1.2 RE24 in support. The Padres' final line of six hits and no errors against seven hits and no errors for Los Angeles underscored how thoroughly San Diego's runs were concentrated in two decisive innings.