Miami Marlins at Chicago Cubs: Final Score & Recap

The Chicago Cubs defeated the Miami Marlins 2-1 at Wrigley Field on September 24, 2026, a tight, low-scoring contest that the DiamondIQ model's estimate opened at a 60 percent home win probability and closed at 100 percent. Miami drew first blood in the top of the third on a Jakob Marsee single off Matthew Boyd, a hit that added 8.5 percent in win probability for the Marlins and stood as the visitors' most impactful offensive moment of the afternoon. Chicago answered in the fifth when Seiya Suzuki deposited a pitch from Jack Ralston over the fence for a solo home run, a swing worth plus 13.4 percent in win probability and the single largest play of the game. Ian Happ followed in the sixth with a triple off Ralston that added another 12.0 percent, providing the Cubs with what proved to be their decisive insurance run.

The Marlins had their chances but could not capitalize. Jared Serna grounded into a double play in the top of the fourth against Boyd, a sequence that cost Miami 9.0 percent in win probability, and Happ's own groundout in the bottom of the third off Tyler Phillips had previously swung 8.6 percent against Chicago before the Cubs found their footing. Miami finished with five hits and committed no errors but stranded enough to keep the offense stuck at a single run. Among individual performers, Suzuki led all batters with a plus 17.1 percent WPA and a 1.2 RE24, while Marsee contributed plus 10.0 percent WPA despite the loss. On the mound, Tyler Phillips paced all pitchers with plus 21.5 percent WPA, followed closely by Boyd at plus 20.4 percent and Ryan Zeferjahn at plus 15.2 percent, a collective effort that held Miami in check and secured the Cubs' one-run victory.