New York Mets at Texas Rangers: Final Score & Recap

The New York Mets handed the Texas Rangers a 7-2 defeat at Globe Life Field on September 23, 2026, erasing what the DiamondIQ model had pegged as a 57 percent pre-game home win probability for Texas down to zero by the final out. The Mets broke a scoreless game in the third inning when Juan Soto connected on a home run off Cody Bradford, a swing that shifted win probability 20.0 percent in New York's favor. Texas answered with two runs of its own in the fifth to briefly trim the deficit, but the Rangers could not sustain the pressure. The decisive blow came in the eighth inning when Marcus Semien launched a home run off Jacob Latz, the single largest win-probability swing of the game at plus 21.3 percent, effectively sealing Texas's fate. Brett Baty added a punctuation-mark home run off Trevor Williams in the ninth for a 14.1 percent swing, capping a four-run frame that pushed the final margin to five.

Individually, Soto led all position players with a WPA of plus 27.8 percent and a RE24 of plus 2.6, while Semien posted plus 18.0 percent WPA and Baty contributed plus 14.1 percent WPA alongside the game's best RE24 among batters at plus 3.4. On the mound, Devin Williams was the standout, generating plus 23.3 percent WPA out of the bullpen, highlighted by his strikeout of Wyatt Langford in the bottom of the eighth that swung win probability 12.9 percent against Texas. Nolan McLean and Tyler Alexander added plus 15.8 and plus 13.1 percent WPA respectively, as the Mets' pitching staff held Texas to four hits and allowed the Rangers' lone multi-inning threat to wither. A Bo Bichette flyout to end the seventh, costing New York 12.3 percent in win probability, was among the few moments the Rangers could point to as a near-miss, though the Mets' margin was already substantial enough to withstand it.