St. Louis Cardinals at Pittsburgh Pirates: Final Score & Recap

The St. Louis Cardinals silenced PNC Park on September 23, 2026, defeating the Pittsburgh Pirates 5-1 behind a dominant run of scoring in the third and fourth innings that effectively decided the contest early. The DiamondIQ model entered the game giving Pittsburgh a 56 percent chance of winning at home, but that edge evaporated quickly as St. Louis broke through with three runs in the third and two more in the fourth, leaving the model's final home win probability at zero percent.

The decisive moment came in the top of the third against Khristian Curtis, when Leo Bernal delivered a single that shifted win probability by 19.3 percentage points in St. Louis's favor, the single largest swing of the night. Alec Burleson followed with a single of his own off Brandon Eisert, adding another 10.9 percentage points, and though Jordan Walker's pop out against Curtis represented a 6.2-point swing back toward Pittsburgh, the Cardinals had done enough damage in the frame to take firm control. Masyn Winn extended the lead further in the fourth with a double off Curtis worth 10.0 percentage points of win probability. Pittsburgh's lone bright spot came in the bottom of the second, when Brandon Lowe hit a home run off Matthew Liberatore for a 7.4-point swing, but it proved an isolated moment in an otherwise Cardinals-dominated game.

Bernal finished as the game's top offensive performer by WPA at plus-16.7 percent with a RE24 of plus-1.1, while Burleson contributed plus-9.4 percent and Winn added plus-8.0 percent with a matching RE24 of plus-1.1. On the mound, Matthew Liberatore led all pitchers with a WPA of plus-13.3 percent, absorbing the Lowe home run but otherwise keeping Pittsburgh's lineup in check across his outing. Luis Gastelum added plus-5.4 percent out of the bullpen as St. Louis held the Pirates to one run on six hits while committing no errors.