Houston Astros at Seattle Mariners: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HOU | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 10 | 0 |
| SEA | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 9 | 0 |
The Story
The Seattle Mariners walked off the Houston Astros 6-5 in ten innings on September 23, 2026, at T-Mobile Park, completing a dramatic comeback that shifted the DiamondIQ model's estimate of a Seattle win from 51 percent before the first pitch to 100 percent by the game's final out. The contest was largely scoreless through the first two frames before erupting in the third, when the Astros plated four runs and the Mariners answered with three in a chaotic exchange that set the tone for a tightly contested affair. Seattle added a run in the fifth to pull even, and the game remained tied through the ninth, forcing extra innings.
The tenth inning produced the most consequential sequence of the night. Yainer Diaz led off the top half with a triple off Cooper Criswell, a swing that added 48.0 percent to Houston's win probability and gave the Astros what appeared to be a decisive lead. Taylor Trammell followed with a groundout that pushed another 17.4 percent in Houston's favor, and Diaz had already authored the game's second-most damaging blow to Seattle earlier with a third-inning home run off George Kirby worth 16.9 percent. Yet the Mariners answered in the bottom half against Josh Hader. Julio Rodriguez drew a walk that added 31.1 percent to Seattle's win probability, and Dominic Canzone followed with a groundout that, in context, drove home the winning run and added 19.3 percent, completing the Mariners' rally.
Diaz finished as the game's top individual performer despite ending up on the losing side, accumulating a WPA of plus-56.1 percent and a RE24 of plus-2.9, a reflection of how dominant his contributions were before Seattle's final surge. Rodriguez led Seattle's performers with a WPA of plus-48.7 percent and an RE24 of plus-2.6, while Canzone added plus-32.0 percent WPA and plus-1.9 RE24 in a supporting role that proved decisive. On the mound, AJ Blubaugh led Seattle's pitching staff with a WPA contribution of plus-15.3 percent, followed by Seranthony Dominguez at plus-13.5 percent and Bryan Abreu at plus-10.9 percent for Houston.