Toronto Blue Jays at Baltimore Orioles: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 1 |
| BAL | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | 4 | 5 | 1 |
The Story
The Baltimore Orioles defeated the Toronto Blue Jays 4-2 at Oriole Park at Camden Yards on September 22, 2026, with the DiamondIQ model's estimate moving from a 54 percent pre-game home win probability to a final certainty of 100 percent. Baltimore built its lead in two separate two-run frames, and Toronto's best offensive threats ultimately fell short in a game that hinged on a handful of pivotal moments.
The decisive swing came in the bottom of the fifth inning, when Pete Alonso connected on a home run off Max Scherzer, a play that shifted Baltimore's win probability by plus 13.1 percent and effectively separated the two clubs. The second inning had already tilted the game in Baltimore's favor, as Jeremiah Jackson's single off Scherzer added 6.8 percent to the Orioles' win probability, while Dylan Beavers being caught stealing second base actually worked in Baltimore's benefit by swinging the win probability plus 8.8 percent against Toronto's momentum. Toronto's most significant missed opportunity came in the top of the fifth, when Vladimir Guerrero Jr. grounded into a double play off Chris Bassitt, costing the Blue Jays 10.8 percent in win probability. Brandon Valenzuela's single off Luis De Leon in the top of the sixth added 11.4 percent for Toronto, but the run support arrived too late to threaten the Orioles' cushion.
On the pitching side, Chris Bassitt led all pitchers with plus 14.7 percent WPA, aided by Anthony Nunez at plus 11.2 percent and Rico Garcia at plus 8.1 percent as Baltimore's staff limited Toronto to two runs despite allowing ten hits. Among position players, Valenzuela finished as the top Blue Jay by WPA at plus 13.1 percent with a plus 1.4 RE24, while Beavers and Alonso paced Baltimore's contributors at plus 10.5 and plus 10.4 percent WPA respectively, each posting a plus 1.4 RE24. The DiamondIQ model leans toward crediting Baltimore's timely pitching and Alonso's fifth-inning blow as the central factors in a four-hit advantage that the Orioles converted into a two-run victory.