Toronto Blue Jays at Baltimore Orioles: Final Score & Recap

Baltimore held off Toronto 4-3 at Oriole Park at Camden Yards on September 21, 2026, with the DiamondIQ model's estimate of a Baltimore win climbing from a pre-game 53 percent all the way to 100 percent by the final out. The game's decisive sequence came in the bottom of the eighth, when Pete Alonso connected on a home run off Tyler Rogers that swung win probability by plus-44.1 percent, the single largest play of the contest. That swing effectively closed the door on any Toronto comeback, capping a rally that had begun with Christian Franklin drawing a walk off Mason Fluharty for a plus-8.6 percent swing earlier in the inning. Gunnar Henderson had given Baltimore its first insurance cushion with a solo home run off Chad Dallas in the sixth, a plus-13.5 percent swing that began pulling the game firmly toward the home side.

Toronto had entered the eighth with modest life, but Nathan Lukes grounded into a double play off Yennier Cano, a minus-9.8 percent swing that erased baserunners and momentum simultaneously. Baltimore had already seen its own eighth-inning threat briefly complicated when Rece Hinds grounded into a double play off José Rodríguez in the seventh for a minus-10.3 percent swing, a moment that temporarily kept the score close before Alonso settled matters decisively. Both clubs finished with six hits and committed no errors, making the game's outcome hinge almost entirely on situational execution. Alonso led all position players with a plus-41.0 WPA and plus-2.5 RE24, while Henderson contributed plus-22.2 WPA and plus-1.7 RE24. On the mound, Rico Garcia led Baltimore's staff with plus-15.2 WPA, followed by Trey Yesavage at plus-14.3 and Cano at plus-12.2, as the Orioles bullpen preserved what the lineup built.