Philadelphia Phillies at New York Mets: Final Score & Recap

The Philadelphia Phillies defeated the New York Mets 7-2 at Citi Field on September 20, 2026, handing New York a lopsided home loss that the DiamondIQ model's estimate reflected emphatically, as pre-game home win probability sat at 44 percent for the Mets before collapsing to zero by the final out. Philadelphia struck first in the opening inning, adding two more runs in the third on a Trea Turner double off Jonah Tong that carried a win-probability swing of plus 9.4 percent, one of the game's cleaner turning points as the Phillies built a lead they would never relinquish. The Mets managed brief answers — Bo Bichette connected for a home run off Cristopher Sánchez in the sixth, a swing worth plus 7.1 percent in win probability for New York — but Sánchez ultimately controlled the narrative despite that blemish, finishing as the game's top pitcher by WPA at plus 21.7 percent.

The most volatile sequence came across the sixth and seventh innings, where the game threatened to shift before ultimately swinging Philadelphia's way. Brett Baty's single off Alex McFarlane in the bottom of the seventh generated the largest single win-probability addition of the night at plus 12.6 percent, momentarily tightening the picture for New York, but Francisco Lindor followed with a pop out that erased 6.2 percentage points of that Mets hope in a single at-bat. Philadelphia then broke the game open in the eighth inning, plating three runs on a Justin Crawford triple off Kodai Senga worth plus 10.7 percent in win probability, effectively ending any meaningful Mets threat. Crawford finished with a plus 11.1 percent WPA and a RE24 of plus 1.2, while Turner's plus 1.3 RE24 illustrated his consistent run-environment impact in the Phillies' construction of a seven-run performance on seven hits without committing a single error.