Washington Nationals at St. Louis Cardinals: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 1 |
| STL | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | - | 5 | 6 | 0 |
The Story
The St. Louis Cardinals defeated the Washington Nationals 5-3 on September 20, 2026, at Busch Stadium, rallying from a deficit to secure the win behind a decisive three-run eighth inning. The DiamondIQ model entered the game with the Cardinals holding a 56% home win probability, and that figure climbed to 100% by the final out. Washington had briefly seized momentum in the top of the sixth, but St. Louis answered emphatically in the late innings to put the game away.
The decisive sequence began in the bottom of the eighth, where Leo Bernal delivered the biggest swing of the night, connecting for a home run off Yovanny Cruz that shifted win probability by plus 35.6 percentage points according to the DiamondIQ model's estimate. Iván Herrera followed with another home run, this one off Erik Tolman, adding another plus 23.6 percentage points to St. Louis's advantage and effectively closing the door on Washington's chances. Earlier, CJ Abrams had given the Nationals a lift in the top of the sixth with a home run off Quinn Mathews that swung win probability by plus 21.8 points in Washington's favor, representing the high-water mark for the visitors. JJ Wetherholt's single off Jake Irvin in the third also contributed modestly, generating a plus 8.8 point swing for St. Louis.
Bernal was the clear standout on the night, finishing with a combined WPA of plus 42.9% and an RE24 of plus 2.3, driven by both his eighth-inning home run and a seventh-inning walk off Will Dion that added another plus 6.7 points. Herrera posted plus 19.7% WPA and plus 1.5 RE24, while Abrams led Washington's offensive contributors at plus 16.0% WPA and plus 0.9 RE24 despite the Nationals' defeat. On the pitching side, Will Dion led Cardinals relievers with plus 13.8% WPA, followed by starter Jake Irvin at plus 10.3% and Luis Gastelum at plus 7.4%.