Chicago Cubs at Cincinnati Reds: Final Score & Recap

The Chicago Cubs rolled to a 9-1 victory over the Cincinnati Reds at Great American Ball Park on September 20, 2026, a result the DiamondIQ model's estimate rendered inevitable long before the final out. Cincinnati entered with a 44 percent pre-game win probability, but that figure collapsed steadily across the afternoon as the Cubs built an insurmountable lead through two decisive offensive bursts. Chicago scored once in the first, erupted for four runs in the third, added three more in the fifth, and tacked on a final run in the eighth, finishing with 13 hits against a Reds staff that had no answers for most of the lineup.

The third inning against Rhett Lowder was the game's turning point and its most damaging sequence by win-probability impact. Pedro Ramírez delivered a single that swung Chicago's chances by 9.9 percent, the single largest play of the contest. Nico Hoerner followed with a walk worth 7.5 percent, and Ian Happ added another single at plus 7.4 percent, extending the frame before Pete Crow-Armstrong drove a double that shifted win probability another 5.9 percent in the Cubs' favor. Crow-Armstrong finished as the game's top batter by WPA at plus 10.2 percent with a RE24 of plus 2.4, while Ramírez was close behind at plus 9.6 percent and plus 1.4 RE24. In the fifth, Michael Conforto provided punctuation against Carson Spiers with a home run worth 5.1 percent, and JJ Bleday rounded out the top offensive contributors at plus 7.9 percent WPA and plus 1.1 RE24.

On the mound, David Peterson was the clear standout, leading all pitchers with a plus 9.6 percent WPA as he neutralized a Reds lineup that managed only four hits on the day. Luis Mey contributed a modest plus 1.2 percent, and Colin Rea finished even at 0.0 percent. Cincinnati's lone run, scored in the fourth, was a brief interruption in what was otherwise a thorough and methodical Cubs performance from first pitch to last.