Chicago Cubs at Cincinnati Reds: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHC | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 8 | 1 |
| CIN | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
The Story
The Chicago Cubs defeated the Cincinnati Reds 5-2 at Great American Ball Park on September 19, 2026, handing Cincinnati a loss the DiamondIQ model's estimate had assigned just a 55 percent pre-game probability of avoiding. The Cubs scored in five of nine innings, building their lead methodically against a Reds club that managed only four hits. Chicago plated single runs in the second, sixth, eighth, and ninth, with the fifth inning proving the pivotal stretch in both directions.
The game's most consequential sequence centered on the fifth and sixth innings. In the bottom of the fifth, Ke'Bryan Hayes delivered a single off Matthew Boyd that shifted win probability 15.2 points in Cincinnati's favor, briefly threatening to flip the game's trajectory. Chicago answered immediately, with Seiya Suzuki's single off Nick Lodolo in the top of the fifth adding 10.0 points of win probability for the Cubs. Then in the top of the sixth, Michael Busch drove a home run off Lodolo that swung win probability 14.3 points toward Chicago, effectively neutralizing Hayes's earlier contribution and extending the Cubs' advantage. Nico Hoerner's single off Pierce Johnson in the top of the eighth, worth 13.3 points, pushed the Cubs closer to a sealed outcome, and Sal Stewart's strikeout at the hands of Ryan Zeferjahn in the bottom half surrendered 12.3 points of Cincinnati's dwindling hope.
Among the standout performers, Busch led all batters with a WPA of plus-17.2 and an RE24 of plus-1.4, his sixth-inning home run serving as the game's defining blow. Hoerner contributed a WPA of plus-10.7 and an RE24 of plus-0.9, while Hayes posted a WPA of plus-10.1 and an RE24 of plus-0.8 despite ultimately being on the losing side. On the mound, Daniel Palencia led all pitchers with a WPA of plus-17.5, and Zeferjahn added plus-14.5, the latter's strikeout of Stewart in the eighth proving critical to preserving Chicago's lead. Lodolo finished with a WPA of plus-1.8 despite surrendering the game's most damaging hit.