Chicago Cubs at Cincinnati Reds: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHC | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 9 | 1 |
| CIN | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | - | 6 | 8 | 0 |
The Story
The Cincinnati Reds defeated the Chicago Cubs 6-4 at Great American Ball Park on September 18, 2026, with the DiamondIQ model's estimate of a home win sitting at just 46% before first pitch and climbing to 100% by the final out. Cincinnati opened with a two-run first inning and traded blows with Chicago through the early frames, but the game's decisive sequence came in the bottom of the sixth, when the Reds turned a close contest into a comfortable lead against Cubs reliever Javier Assad. A Jose Trevino single was the single most impactful play of the game, shifting win probability by plus 19.4 percentage points, followed shortly by an Eugenio Suárez single that added another 11.0 points. That three-run sixth inning effectively ended Chicago's chances, pushing Cincinnati's model probability to a commanding level from which the Cubs never recovered.
On the Chicago side, Seiya Suzuki provided the brightest individual moments, including a single in the fourth that registered plus 18.7 percentage points of win probability, and Ian Happ contributed a home run off Chase Burns in the third worth plus 10.6 points. However, Suzuki also logged the game's single most damaging negative play for the Cubs, a strikeout against Burns in the second that cost Chicago 8.8 percentage points. By WPA, Cincinnati's offensive standouts were Trevino at plus 17.0 with a RE24 of plus 0.8 and Carson Kelly at plus 15.0 with a RE24 of plus 1.7, while Suárez finished at plus 14.0. The Reds' bullpen locked down the final three innings cleanly, with Tejay Antone, Brock Burke, and Emilio Pagán combining for plus 21.6 percentage points of pitching WPA to preserve the two-run victory.