MLB Recap · September 16, 2026

Chicago White Sox at Cleveland Guardians: Final Score & Recap

CWS3
Final
CLE6

Line Score

Team123456789RHE
CWS000030000381
CLE00200400-650

The Story

The Cleveland Guardians defeated the Chicago White Sox 6-3 at Progressive Field on September 16, 2026, in a game that began as a tightly contested pitchers' duel before Cleveland pulled away with a decisive sixth-inning surge. The DiamondIQ model opened the evening with a 54 percent home win probability, a figure that crept only modestly until the late innings, when it moved sharply and ultimately settled at 100 percent in Cleveland's favor.

The pivotal sequence came in the bottom of the sixth, when the Guardians turned a competitive game into a comfortable one. Petey Halpin delivered the most consequential swing of the night, a home run off Sean Newcomb that shifted win probability by 38.1 percentage points and effectively closed the door on any Chicago comeback. José Ramírez added a double in the same frame for an additional 8.4 percentage-point swing, capping a four-run inning that gave Cleveland a lead it would not relinquish. The White Sox had briefly seized momentum in the top of the fifth, when Tommy Pham connected for a home run off Parker Messick, a blow worth 33.6 percentage points of win probability that gave Chicago a 3-2 lead. Jo Adell had set the tone for Cleveland earlier with a third-inning single off Anthony Kay that added 17.2 percentage points, while Luisangel Acuña's forceout in the top of the fourth cost Chicago 8.8 points of win probability at a critical juncture.

By the final WPA accounting, Halpin finished as the game's most valuable contributor at plus-40.3 percent with a RE24 of plus-2.7, followed by Pham at plus-27.0 percent despite landing on the losing side, and Adell at plus-11.3 percent. On the mound, Hagen Smith led Cleveland's pitching staff with plus-7.6 percent WPA, with Cade Smith and Hunter Gaddis each adding meaningful contributions at plus-6.4 and plus-5.0 percent respectively. Cleveland's 6-5 hit advantage was modest, but the timing of those hits, concentrated in innings three and six, proved decisive against a White Sox club that managed eight hits but could not overcome the Guardians' run-environment efficiency on the night.

Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.

Win Probability

755025CWS bats firstFinalCLE win %CWS win %
DiamondIQ model home win probability across the game (pre-game 54.3% → final 100%).

Biggest Plays by Win-Probability Added

Petey Halpin — Home Run
Bot 6th · off Sean Newcomb
+38.1%
Tommy Pham — Home Run
Top 5th · off Parker Messick
+33.6%
Jo Adell — Single
Bot 3rd · off Anthony Kay
+17.2%
Luisangel Acuña — Forceout
Top 4th · off Parker Messick
-8.8%
José Ramírez — Double
Bot 6th · off Sean Newcomb
+8.4%

Top Batters by WPA

Petey Halpin+40.3%+2.7 RE24
Tommy Pham+27.0%+1.8 RE24
Jo Adell+11.3%+1.1 RE24

Top Pitchers by WPA

Full box score, pitch data, and the play-by-play timeline
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