Baltimore Orioles at New York Mets: Final Score & Recap

The Baltimore Orioles handed the New York Mets a lopsided 7-1 defeat at Citi Field on September 16, 2026, a game that was effectively decided before the fourth inning. The DiamondIQ model opened with a 50 percent home win probability for New York, but that figure collapsed steadily through the early frames as Baltimore built a three-run lead through the first three innings and never surrendered control, finishing with the model's estimate at zero percent for the Mets.

The decisive stretch came in the second and third innings at the hands of Baltimore's offense against starter Xzavion Curry. Jeremiah Jackson got Baltimore rolling with a home run in the second inning, a swing that shifted win probability by plus 5.8 percent in the Orioles' favor. A Brett Baty strikeout in the bottom of the second — the game's second-largest single play by win-probability impact at minus 8.8 percent for New York — extinguished a potential Mets rally before it began. Christian Encarnacion-Strand then delivered the decisive blow in the top of the third, a home run off Curry that carried a plus 12.7 percent win-probability swing, and Samuel Basallo added another home run in the same inning for an additional plus 4.1 percent shift. Curry absorbed damage across multiple at-bats while Baltimore continued to pile on.

Encarnacion-Strand finished as the game's top performer by WPA at plus 15.2 percent with a RE24 of plus 2.9, his home run serving as the single most impactful offensive moment of the contest. On the mound, Chris Bassitt was dominant, accumulating plus 21.6 percent WPA to lead all pitchers, holding New York to one run and consistently keeping the Mets' hitters at bay throughout the night. Jefry Yan and Anthony Nunez provided additional relief support, contributing plus 2.2 and plus 0.9 percent WPA respectively as Baltimore closed out a commanding road victory.