MLB Recap · September 15, 2026

Los Angeles Dodgers at Cincinnati Reds: Final Score & Recap

LAD4
Final
CIN0

Line Score

Team123456789RHE
LAD012000100480
CIN000000000030

The Story

The Los Angeles Dodgers shut out the Cincinnati Reds 4-0 at Great American Ball Park on September 15, 2026, a result the DiamondIQ model's estimate made increasingly inevitable as the game progressed, with the Reds entering at a 39% pre-game win probability that fell to 0% by the final out. Los Angeles scored in three separate innings, building its lead methodically against a Cincinnati staff that could not contain the Dodgers' lineup at critical moments. The victory was clean and efficient, with Los Angeles committing no errors while holding the Reds to just three hits across nine innings.

The decisive blow came in the top of the third, when Teoscar Hernández connected on a home run off Reds starter Rhett Lowder, a swing the DiamondIQ model registered as the single largest win-probability shift of the game at plus 18.4%. Hernández finished as the game's top offensive performer by WPA at plus 18.8% with a RE24 of plus 1.7, making his third-inning shot the effective turning point. Hunter Feduccia had also contributed in the second inning, his single off Lowder adding plus 6.3% win probability and contributing to an overall line of plus 8.4% WPA and a RE24 of plus 1.9 for the night. Alex Freeland added an insurance run in the seventh with a home run off Pierce Johnson worth plus 6.7% win probability, though he had partially offset his own contributions with a fourth-inning double play that cost the Dodgers minus 5.3% in win probability.

On the mound, Yoshinobu Yamamoto was the story the DiamondIQ model told most clearly, generating plus 27.6% WPA to lead all pitchers by a wide margin and anchoring a Dodgers effort that kept Cincinnati's lineup to three hits without allowing a single run. Julian Garcia followed with plus 2.7% WPA, and Brock Stewart closed out with plus 1.2%. The Reds' Lowder was the losing pitcher, having surrendered the bulk of the damage including both the Hernández home run and the Feduccia single that set the tone in the early innings.

Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.

Win Probability

755025LAD bats firstFinalCIN win %LAD win %
DiamondIQ model home win probability across the game (pre-game 39.4% → final 0%).

Biggest Plays by Win-Probability Added

Teoscar Hernández — Home Run
Top 3rd · off Rhett Lowder
+18.4%
Alex Freeland — Home Run
Top 7th · off Pierce Johnson
+6.7%
Hunter Feduccia — Single
Top 2nd · off Rhett Lowder
+6.3%
Alex Freeland — Grounded Into DP
Top 4th · off Rhett Lowder
-5.3%
Kyle Tucker — Strikeout
Top 1st · off Rhett Lowder
-3.8%

Top Batters by WPA

Teoscar Hernández+18.8%+1.7 RE24
Hunter Feduccia+8.4%+1.9 RE24
Dane Myers+2.6%+0.4 RE24

Top Pitchers by WPA

Full box score, pitch data, and the play-by-play timeline
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