Chicago White Sox at St. Louis Cardinals: Final Score & Recap

The Chicago White Sox defeated the St. Louis Cardinals 6-5 at Busch Stadium on September 12, 2026, in a game that turned entirely on a single swing in the ninth inning. The Cardinals had entered the day as slight favorites, with the DiamondIQ model's estimate placing St. Louis at a 52 percent pre-game win probability, but that edge evaporated completely by the final out. St. Louis had built momentum through the middle innings, scoring three runs in the second on a Masyn Winn double off Luis Castillo that shifted win probability 11.6 points in the Cardinals' favor, and added a run in the fourth to maintain a lead heading into the fifth. Chicago chipped away with three runs in the fifth, including a Munetaka Murakami walk off Cooper Hjerpe that moved the needle 14.2 points toward the White Sox, before Leo Bernal's solo home run off Grant Taylor in the bottom of the eighth drew St. Louis back within a run and swung win probability 18.8 points toward the home side.

With the Cardinals trailing by one in the top of the ninth, Randal Grichuk delivered the decisive blow, connecting for a home run off Riley O'Brien that produced the largest single win-probability swing of the game at plus 70.0 points and immediately put Chicago ahead 6-4. Bernal then answered in the bottom half with a groundout that, with runners on base, clawed back 31.6 points of win probability for St. Louis, bringing the Cardinals to within one, but Bryan Hudson and the White Sox bullpen closed it out. Grichuk finished as the game's top performer by WPA at plus 54.1 with a plus-0.5 RE24, while Bernal's combined efforts on both sides of the ledger left him at plus 46.1 WPA despite his team falling short. On the mound, Hagen Smith led Chicago's pitchers with a plus-13.3 WPA contribution, followed by George Soriano at plus 10.6 and Kyle Leahy at plus 8.5, as the White Sox bullpen ultimately held a Cardinals lineup that finished the night with eight hits but could not overcome the late deficit.