Baltimore Orioles at Toronto Blue Jays: Final Score & Recap

The Toronto Blue Jays defeated the Baltimore Orioles 7-3 at Rogers Centre on September 12, 2026, a result the DiamondIQ model's estimate saw coming as pre-game home win probability of 55 percent climbed steadily to 100 percent by game's end. Toronto built its advantage early and never relinquished it, finishing with 11 hits against Baltimore's 6 in a game the Blue Jays controlled through pitching and timely power.

The third inning was the decisive turning point. Alejandro Kirk delivered a home run off Kyle Bradish that swung win probability by plus 9.8 percent in Toronto's favor, and Brett Bateman followed with another home run off Bradish moments later for an additional plus 7.8 percent swing, effectively breaking the game open. Those two blows in the same inning accounted for the sharpest back-to-back probability movement of the night and gave Toronto a cushion Baltimore could never overcome. The Orioles' best response came in the top of the seventh when Pete Alonso connected for a home run off Paul Sewald, a plus 6.3 percent swing that briefly tightened the model's estimate before Toronto answered with a run of its own in the bottom half to stabilize their lead.

Kirk led all players by WPA at plus 11.5 percent with a plus 2.5 RE24, while Bateman finished at plus 8.2 percent WPA. Alonso, despite the loss, posted plus 5.6 percent WPA and plus 1.7 RE24 as Baltimore's most impactful bat. On the mound, Spencer Miles paced Toronto's pitching staff at plus 6.9 percent WPA, supported by Joe Mantiply at plus 5.0 percent and Spencer Arrighetti at plus 4.0 percent. Baltimore's Carlos Narváez contributed a minus 5.1 percent WPA strikeout in the second inning against Miles, an early missed opportunity that proved costly given how quickly Toronto took command.